Ali Slovenija na Evroviziji res ne bo prišla v finalni večer?

Jutri je prvi polfinalni večer in jutri nastopa tudi Slovenija. Ne glede na to, kakšen bo jutrišnji rezultat, sem prepričan, da bo Omar odlično izpeljal svojo nalogo. Ne glede na to, ali se strinjamo z izborom Ema, moramo podpreti našega predstavnika.

V zgornjem prispevku smo pogledali statistično in zgodovinsko analizo glasovanja države državi. Že takrat smo opazili, da Slovenija nima najboljše predpozicije.

Ker se sam ukvarjam tudi s priporočilnimi sistemi, sem evrovizijsko situacijo prevedel na področje priporočilnih sistemov. Dodal sem vsa zgodovinska glasovanja, statistične podatke, stanja na stavnicah ter druge merilnike uspešnosti pred samimi evrovizijskimi izbori. Uporabil sem matrično faktorizacijo z gradientnim spustom (MFGD) in matrično faktorizacijo z združevanjem več virov (MFDF). Preprosto razlago o matrični faktorizaciji najdete spodaj.

In kakšne so napovedi? Naj opozorim, da gre za raziskovalno-ljubiteljsko delo. Ne gre za poglobljeno znanstveno delo, ampak le za uporabo osnovnih algoritmov na podatkih. Mogoče pa se za prihodnje leto odločim, da se bolj znanstveno spustim v samo zadevo.

Prvi polfinalni večer – napoved modela MFGD Prvi polfinalni večer – napoved modela MFDF
Švedska
Armenija
Azerbajdžan
Avstralija
Finska
Portugalska
Grčija
Belgija
Moldavija
Latvija
—————————
Gruzija
Albanija
Ciper
Češka
Islandija
Črna gora
Poljska
Slovenija
Grčija
Švedska
Avstralija
Azerbajdžan
Armenija
Gruzija
Belgija
Finska
Portugalska
Latvija
—————————
Islandija
Moldavija
Albanija
Črna gora
Poljska
Ciper
Slovenija
Češka

Verjetno vas zanimajo tudi napovedi za četrtkov 2. polfinalni večer, kajne? No, naj vam bo. Algoritma pravita takole:

Drugi polfinalni večer – napoved modela MFGD Drugi polfinalni večer – napoved modela MFDF
Bolgarija
Danska
Estonija
Madžarska
Romunija
Izrael
Avstrija
Makedonija
Belorusija
Nizozemska
—————————
Irska
Hrvaška
Litva
Malta
Norveška
San Marino
Srbija
Švica
Danska
Srbija
Norveška
Bolgarija
Madžarska
Avstrija
Romunija
Nizozemska
Izrael
Makedonija
—————————
Estonija
Hrvaška
Litva
Malta
Belorusija
Irska
Švica
San Marino

Kot je razvidno se metodi pri nekaterih državah razlikujeta. Kot že rečeno gre za splošno uporabo algoritmov nad podatki. Za poglobljeno zadevo, bi morali opraviti veliko več prilagoditve in bistveno bolj znanstven pristop.

Zagotovo vas zanima, kaj bi metode napovedale, kdo bo sobotni zmagovalec, kajne? Brez skrbi v petek boste prejeli moj odgovor, ko bodo že znane vse države, ki se bodo dejansko uvrstile v finalni večer.

Srečno, Slovenija!

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