Kdo bo zmagovalec Evrovizije 2018?

Slovenija je v finalu! Bravo, Lea Sirk in ekipa! Sedaj pa so že špekulacije, kdo bo zmagovalec Pesmi Evrovizije 2018. Seveda sem tudi tokrat zagnal algoritem, a naprej poglejmo, kako uspešen je bil algoritem pri napovedovanju, kdo bo prišel v veliki finale.

V zgornjem prispevku so objavljene napovedi. Najprej si poglejmo prvi polfinalni večer. Tako stavnice kot tudi moj algoritem je zgrešil 3 države, torej je bila uspešnost pravilne napovedi 7/10. Oboji nismo napovedali, da bosta naprej prišli Irska in Albanija. Stavnice so sicer rekle, da bo Litva prišla naprej, a moj algoritem tega ni predvidel. Je pa predvidel, da bo prišla naprej Finska, medtem ko stavnice tega niso napovedovale.

Kaj pa drugi polfinalni večer? Moj algoritem je vse države pravilno napovedal, le Slovenije ni vključil. In vesel sem, da je naredil napako. Zelo vesel. Torej je uspešnost mojega algoritma 9/10, stavnice pa so poleg Slovenije pozabili še na Srbijo.

Sedaj pa verjetno že nestrpno čakate, kakšne so napovedi za danes – današnji finalni večer Pesmi Evrovizije 2018. Pa si poglejmo.

TOP3 OddsChecker TOP3 UKI’s system TOP3 Zgodovinsko-statistično

Glede na napovedi nas torej čaka naslednje leto izbor v Cipru ali Izraelu. Mogoče pa bo glede na statistične napovedi ponovno presenetila Švedska. Vse je mogoče. Vedno znova sem vesel, ko se stavnici in algoritmi zmotijo. Zakaj? Zato, ker potem je vedno upanje, da ni vse v naprej začrtano.

Naši Lei glede na stavnice in moj algoritem slabo kaže. Ampak hej! Tudi pri napovedovanju uvrstitve za polfinale nas niso zaznali. In naj se ponovno zgodi napaka. Sicer pa v finalnem večeru smo! Tudi to šteje! Potiho pa si želim, da bi izboljšali zgodovinsko najboljšo uvrstitev (7. mesto, ki si delijo Berta Ambrož (1966), Darja Švajger (1995) in Nuša Derenda (2001)) ali pa vsaj izboljšali 13. mesto (Maja Keuc leta 2011), ki je do sedaj najboljša uvrstitev, od kar imamo polfinalne večere.

Srečno, Lea! Srečno, Slovenija!

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